Gold price projections in March 2020



According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for March 2020.

The monthly tracking from January 2018 to February 2020 in the upper and lower ranges, the closing prices of exchange to each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. Just on 24 February, the exchange of ten am issued by the LBM was US $ 1,682 / Auoz just in the upper limit estimated by the model. All other days the real prices of Gold for February within the ranges established. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits.


Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) March 2018- February 2020.

In February 2020, the level of global uncertainty continued to rise, this time being strongly impacted by the Coronavirus, and with it, the market volatility registered in VIX at the date of this report is at 54.6.



Graph # 2: Gold prices broke the lower limit of the model from days 13 to 24 due to COVID-19. Then and until the end of the month, prices continued within the model's estimates.



The revision of the estimation error of the average issued by the AXL Capital model for the month of February 2020 versus the real average reported by the LBM (10 am) is -0.9%: 1,588 US / oz vs. 1,602. This is very acceptable and to date exceeds its reliability of 90% of its upper and lower ranges in its estimates.

AXL Capital Management, estimates for March 2020 the following levels for the price of Gold
Upper level: $ 1,741 / Auoz.
Lower level: US $ 1,575 / Auoz.
Average: US $ 1,653 / Auoz.


Conclusion

The corona virus is the main generator of uncertainty and volatility worldwide, increasing the VIX index to values ​​greater than 60 on 03/09. The strengthening of the dollar, on the contrary, acts as an "offset" agent to minimize a new rally in Gold prices. All of the above could be substantially reduced at the time of news about a control of the virus through a possible vaccine.


For March 2020 the upper level of the model estimates is 1,741 US $ / Auoz.
For March 2020, the lower level of the model estimates is US $ 1,575 / Auoz.
For March 2020 the average would be: 1,653 US $ / Auoz.


Cordially,


Yro S. Cortez Ramos
Mining Business Development Manager
AXL Capital Management
yro.cortez@axlcapitalmanagement.com


Disclaimer: The results issued by AXL Capital Management are carried out with a deep level of analysis, however, they are subject to potential global macroeconomic variations that have a high level of uncertainty, so those results must be used only for information and do not represent purchase recommendations. / sale or short, long-term investments for the global Gold market, its derivatives, ETFs, or shares of mining companies or any other type of investment.
Ubicación: Estados Unidos

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