Gold price projections in February 2020




According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for February 2020. The monthly tracking from January 2018 to January 2020 in the upper and lower ranges, all the values at the end of each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits.



Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) February 2018- January 2020.

The beginning of the year 2020 has a particular level of challenge for the model's estimates since the tensions between the USA and Iran increased the level of global uncertainty and with it, the market volatility registered in the VIX in January rose to levels above 16 and a New global threat with the virus crown weakened the Chinese Yuan and strengthened the dollar, however, Gold prices did not register greater volatility at the beginning of February 2020. VIX as of the date of this report is at 14.

The revision of the estimation error of the average issued by the AXL Capital model for the month of January 2020 versus the actual average reported by the LBM (10 am) is -2.8%: 1,518 US/oz vs 1,560. This is totally acceptable and remains within 90% reliability for a model that in that particular month had an increase in an uncontrollable variable such as the tensions between the USA and Iran.

AXL Capital Management estimates for February 2020 the following levels for the price of Gold
Upper level: $ 1,682 / Auoz.
Lower level: US $ 1,510 / Auoz.
Average: US $ 1,588 / Auoz.


Conclusion

Speculation about a possible global recession and tensions between the US and Iran increased the price of Gold at the beginning of this year. Factors such as the coronavirus weakened the Chinese Yuan and strengthened the value of the dollar, one could speculate that this will reduce gold prices for, However, our model indicates an average slightly higher than the previous month.

For February 2020 the upper level of the model estimates is 1,682 US $ / Auoz.
For February 2020 the lower level of the model estimates is 1,510 US $ / Auoz.
For February 2020 the average would be: 1,588 US $ / Auoz.

Cordially,


Yro S. Cortez Ramos
Mining Business Development Manager
AXL Capital Management
yro.cortez@axlcapitalmanagement.com


Disclaimer: The results issued by AXL Capital Management are carried out with a deep level of analysis, however, they are subject to potential global macroeconomic variations that have a high level of uncertainty, so those results must be used only for information and do not represent purchase recommendations. / sale or short, long-term investments for the global Gold market, its derivatives, ETFs, or shares of mining companies or any other type of investment.
Ubicación: Perú

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