Gold price forecast in January 2020



According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for January 2020. The monthly tracking from January 2018 to December 2019 in the upper and lower ranges, all the values at the end of each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits.



Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) January 2018- Dec 2019.

The beginning of the year 2020 has a particular level of challenge for the estimates of the model since the tensions between the USA and Iran increased the level of global uncertainty and with it, the volatility of the market registered in the VIX rose to levels higher than 16 at the beginning of this week, the above impacts on the price. However, as of the date of this report, the value of the VIX dropped to 12.38.


Graph # 2: VIX volatility index. The daily timeframe from January 2019 to January 2020

AXL Capital Management estimates for January 2020 the following levels for the price of Gold:

Upper level: US $ 1,625 / Auoz.
Lower level: US $ 1,404 / Auoz.
Average: US $ 1,518 / Auoz.


Conclusion

Speculation about a possible global recession and tensions between the USA and Iran increased the price of Gold at the beginning of this year. 2020 is speculation could be the start of a great rally in the price of gold metal also considering the presidential elections in the USA.

For January 2020 the upper level of the model estimates is US $ 1,625 / Auoz.
For January 2020 the lower level of the model estimates is the US $ 1,404 / Auoz.
For January 2020 the average would be: 1,518 US $ / Auoz.

Cordially,


Yro S. Cortez Ramos
Mining Business Development Manager
AXL Capital Management
yro.cortez@axlcapitalmanagement.com


Disclaimer: The results issued by AXL Capital Management are carried out with a deep level of analysis, however, they are subject to potential global macroeconomic variations that have a high level of uncertainty, so those results must be used only for information and do not represent purchase recommendations. / sale or short, long-term investments for the global Gold market, its derivatives, ETFs, or shares of mining companies or any other type of investment.
Ubicación: Chile

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