Gold price projections in April 2020

The monthly tracking from January 2018 to March 2020 in the upper and lower range, all the values at the end of each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. However, it should be noted that for the first time since the model operates, daily gold prices from March 16 to 24 exceeded the estimated lower limit, all other days real gold prices were within the established ranges.

To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits.

Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) January 2018- March 2020.

Gold prices for March 2020 exhibited above-average volatilities, the closing of the borders between countries by the COVID-19 in the first place delayed gold, explained above due to massive sales of the gold medal to cover short positions in the stock market and seek and possess liquidity among investors and entrepreneurs. In this way, it is the first time that the lower band of the model estimates is broken between days 13-24, as shown in the following graph.

Graph # 2: Gold prices broke the lower limit of the 13-24 model due to COVID-19. Then and until the end of the month, prices continued within the model's estimates.

The revision of the estimation error of the average issued by the AXL Capital model for March 2020 versus the actual average reported by the LBM (10 am) is + 3.6%: 1,653 US $ / oz vs. US $ 1.593 / oz. The above is within the acceptable range of model error.

Conclusion

The coronavirus paralyzed world trade, causing job losses and loss of life. It threatens to drive the economy into a possible recession if it fails to control or find a vaccine in the short term. If the recession scenario happened despite the announcement of a never-before-seen injection of dollars of more than a billion dollars, but if the economy does not revive soon with the return to work of people, the commercial exchange of goods and services and money exchange at the expected levels, the uncertainty will increase, capitals will continue to seek refuge assets and with it, the gold medal will continue its bullish career.

In the case of a contrary scenario, gold prices will decrease in the short term, but in the medium term, the magnitude of the injection of "easy" money into the economy through the so-called quantitative easing could generate inflation, increases in interest rates and A new big gold price rally.

For April 2020, the upper level of the model estimates is US $ 1,736 / Auoz.

For April 2020, the lowest level of the model estimates is US $ 1,563 / Auoz.

For April 2020, the average would be: 1,646 US $ / Auoz.

Yro S. Cortez Ramos

Mining Business Development Manager

AXL Capital Management

yro.cortez@axlcapitalmanagement.com

Disclaimer: The results issued by AXL Capital Management are carried out with a deep level of analysis, however, they are subject to potential global macroeconomic variations that have a high level of uncertainty, so those results must be used only for information and do not represent purchase recommendations. / sale or short, long-term investments for the global Gold market, its derivatives, ETFs, or shares of mining companies or any other type of investment.