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Gold price projections in May 2020

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According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for May 2020. For May 2020, the model indicates a lower limit of US $ 1,619 / 0z, and an upper limit of US $ 1,787 / Oz, the latter represents the maximum value since November 2012. When analyzing those results with technical price indicators, the conclusion made that if the upper lateral channel of US $ 1,742 / Oz breaks, the next level projected by the model is feasible to reach: US $ 1,787 / Oz. Chart # 1: The daily chart of the price of Gold shows a side-channel whose upper level is US $1,742 / Oz, and the lower level is US $1,671 / Oz. The US economy is reopening in many states, a slow recovery of jobs expected, which at the date of this report reaches a record historical figure of 33, 483,000 jobs lost from 03/21 to 05/02 (Data, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis). That figure represents almost the entire Peruvian population. ...

The economy in times of coronavirus

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The Holistic vision by the Engineer Roque Benavides is a very clear explanation of speak of the Economy in times of virus crown and giving the structured approach as the vision of containment, reactivation, Investment with economic, social development, respect for the environment and health care for the workers. @Roque_Benavides: The coronashock is unprecedented. Characteristics of the crisis: Abrupt shock in productive capacity that immediately passes to the financial markets.   Fast and severe: The collapse in the markets (of the equity market and debt) occurred in three weeks. Simultaneous recession in developed and emerging economies. Key characteristics of a scenario for the year 2020: Until after winter, restrictions on some economic activities and the free movement of people. Fiscal response to the crisis equivalent to or more than 3% of GDP. The economic balances of companies and families significantly affected. High credit risk...

A look at the great Peruvian mining company of gold-copper Buenaventura

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By: Yro Sune Cortez Ramos, April 2020. The purpose of this analysis is to assess the current context, market capitalization, risks, the performance of its share price, and, in general, the challenges facing the Minas Buenaventura company due to the diversification of its production in precious metals and base metals. It has a "natural" hedge to the volatility of the price of metals, an essential requirement to reduce risk in any investment portfolio, and it could also have a higher bullish momentum of its share price in the following months.   1. INTRODUCTION Compañía de Minas Buenaventura (BVN), is a Peruvian mining company that performs exploration, mining, and processing of Gold and Silver minerals as well as Copper, Lead, and Zinc. The company operates 7 mines in Peru and keeps a shareholding in major gold mining fields in Peru such as Yanacocha in Newmont with (43.6%), and copper mines such as Cerro Verde in Freeport McMoRan with (19.5 %). COVID-...

Gold price projections in April 2020

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The monthly tracking from January 2018 to March 2020 in the upper and lower range, all the values at the end of each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. However, it should be noted that for the first time since the model operates, daily gold prices from March 16 to 24 exceeded the estimated lower limit, all other days real gold prices were within the established ranges. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits. Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) January 2018- March 2020. Gold prices for March 2020 exhibited above-average volatilities, the closing of the borders between countries by the COVID-19 in the first place delayed gold, explained above due to massive sales of the gold medal to cover short positions in the stock market and seek and possess liquidity among investors and entrepreneurs. In this way, it is the first time that the lower...

The famous inversion of the curve is a feast for gold mining companies.

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Will Gold repeat or exceed the prices of the last recession of 2008? How will this increase the cash flow of the Gold mining companies, strengthen their financial position, their reinvestment options, their long-term strategies, and their benefits for their stakeholders and the joy of their shareholders? Gold has benefited from global uncertainty and risk aversion mainly due to the Washington-Beijing trade war and fears of the end of one of the longest bullish business cycles. The price of gold has risen by more than 16% this year. The big beneficiaries? Gold miners could see their income for this second semester (H2) of 2019 increase by 25 US $ million for every 100 KAuoz of production, considering a budget of the Gold price for 2019 at 1,200 US $ / Auoz and price of the final sale of US $ 1,450 / Auoz. In other words, for every 1 Million Auoz produced for this H2, income would rise by 250 MM the US $, only due to the effects of Gold prices. “Nice dilemma” for Gold miners, th...

Gold price projections in March 2020

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According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for March 2020. The monthly tracking from January 2018 to February 2020 in the upper and lower ranges, the closing prices of exchange to each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. Just on 24 February, the exchange of ten am issued by the LBM was US $ 1,682 / Auoz just in the upper limit estimated by the model. All other days the real prices of Gold for February within the ranges established. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits. Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) March 2018- February 2020. In February 2020, the level of global uncertainty continued to rise, this time being strongly impacted by the Coronavirus, and with it, the market volatility registered in VIX at the date of this report is at 54.6. Graph # 2: Gold prices broke the lower limit ...

Gold price projections in February 2020

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According to the model developed by the AXL Capital Management team, this report issues the projected levels of Gold prices for February 2020. The monthly tracking from January 2018 to January 2020 in the upper and lower ranges, all the values at the end of each month of the Gold prices are within the estimates. To date, the model operates within its 90% confidence limits. Graph # 1: Tracking model results vs. real Gold price data, monthly close (10 am LBM) February 2018- January 2020. The beginning of the year 2020 has a particular level of challenge for the model's estimates since the tensions between the USA and Iran increased the level of global uncertainty and with it, the market volatility registered in the VIX in January rose to levels above 16 and a New global threat with the virus crown weakened the Chinese Yuan and strengthened the dollar, however, Gold prices did not register greater volatility at the beginning of February 2020. VIX as of the date ...